Methodological tools for Ex-post evaluation

The approach to the Ex-post evaluation can be divided into two broad steps:

  1. We will describe past policies in a detailed way. Their working mechanisms and intended objectives are part of this description
  2. These policies will be evaluated along the sustainability dimensions. This means that the impact of the Agreement between the EU and Mexico will be assessed in economic, social, and environmental terms

Following this there are four basic blocks:

  • Policy anlaysis;
  • Economic anlaysis;
  • Social anlayis;
  • Environmental anlaysis.

Policy analysis:

  • The Agreement’s context, structure, and institutional framework.
  • Joint Council decisions, as well as measures adopted by national Mexican legislation as a result of the Agreement.
  • Functioning of the institutional framework.

Economic analysis:

  • Trend and share analysis (incl. elements regarding intra-industry trade, trade composition and diversification, trade complementarity, and tariff and non-tariff measures profiles).
  • Structural gravity analysis to filter out FTA-induced effects.
  • Using results of the gravity analysis CGE modelling will identify how the Agreement has contributed to the general economic development as well as trade between both regions.

Social analysis:

  • Descripitve analysis and historical trends relating to e.g. employment and wages, poverty and inequality, as well as issues with regard to the ILO Devent Work Agenda.
  • A quantitative social analysis, which presents relevant CGE output indicators, and makes use of them in combination with household survey data to provide information in order to gain more insights with respect to poverty and inequality.
  • Qualitative analysis that will identify and describe FTA impacts related to e.g. ILO Decent Work indicators, human rights issues, and the informal economy.

Environmental analysis:

  • Description of the development of the environmental situation with the help of indicators relating to air pollution, natural resources use, waste, and climate change.
  • Use of the CGE output indicators to calculate the impact of the Agreement on GHG and air pollutant emissions. We will decompose impacts into scale and composition effects.
  • We will look closer into the trade in environmental goods since the signing of the FTA.

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