The purpose of this study is to provide an ex-post evaluation of the impact of the trade chapters of the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements between the EU and respectively Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia.
More specifically, this evaluation will assess:
- The effectiveness and efficiency of the trade chapters of the Association Agreements in view of achieving its objectives
- The relevance of the trade chapters of the Association Agreements regarding current trade issues faced by the EU and the six partner countries
- The coherence of the trade chapters of the Association Agreements with the trade policy of the EU and the six partner countries
The evaluation is expected to provide new insights in the manner in which the trade agreements have been implemented and what their positive and negative effects were. Conducting this evaluation is particularly important, as the lessons learned will help improve the design of new trade negotiations (DCFTAs) that have already started for Tunisia and Morocco and that may start later with Jordan and Egypt.
SCOPE OF THE EVALUATION
The evaluation includes all relevant trade chapters of the Association Agreements and covers a time period starting from 1 March 1998 (when the Association Agreement with Tunisia entered into force). In addition, it examines trade performances going back three years prior to the implementation of each agreement. The evaluation covers the impact of the AAs in the EU as well as in the six Southern Mediterranean partner countries: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia.
The methodology for the evaluation consists of quantitative and qualitative analysis that together provide a full picture of the impact of the AAs. These different elements are the consultation activities, the economic analysis and the sustainability analysis.
The consultation activities feed into the analysis of all impacts and include the following elements:
- Open public consultations;
- Surveys for different target groups;
- Stakeholder workshops;
- Round table sessions;
- Civil society dialogue;
- In-depth interviews;
The methods for the economic analysis include:
- Descriptive analysis
- CGE modelling
- Partial equilibrium modelling
- Qualitative analysis
- Four sector case studies: Textiles and clothing; Agriculture; Machinery and transport equipment; Chemicals.
The sustainability analysis first identifies the impacts on sustainable development, and analyses in more details social, environmental and human rights impacts as well as impacts on developing countries and LDCs..Methods include:
- Causal chain analysis
- Case studies